Publications

In the Mundell-Fleming framework, standard monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility fully insulate economies from shocks. However, that framework abstracts from many real world imperfections, and countries often resort to unconventional policies to...

We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during...

The pandemic is not over, and the health and economic losses continue to grow. It is now evident that COVID-19 will be with us for the long term, and there are very different scenarios for how it could evolve, from a mild endemic scenario to a dangerous...

The Mundell-Fleming IS-LM approach has guided generations of economists over the past 60 years. But countries have experienced new problems, the international finance literature has advanced, and the composition of the global economy has changed, so the...

We find that central banks in emerging economies with floating exchange rates follow the Taylor-rule and lower policy rates during economic slowdowns, indicating a counter-cyclical monetary policy stance. However, unlike in advanced economies, short-term...

In 2025, statutory tariff rates on U.S. imports rose to levels not seen in over one
hundred years. What are the implications for prices? On the one hand, shipping
lags, exemptions, and enforcement gaps have kept the actual implemented rates
at only half of...

This paper explores how non-U.S. central banks behave when firms in their economies engage in currency mismatch, borrowing more heavily in dollars than justified by their operating exposures. We begin by documenting that, in a panel of 56 countries...

We develop a tractable small-open-economy framework to characterize the constrained efficient use of the monetary policy rate, foreign exchange (FX) intervention, capital controls, and domestic macroprudential measures. The model features dominant...

Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes...

Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, we provide new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation...

Pandemics and epidemics pose systemic risks to lives, societies, and to global economic security—and their frequency is expected to increase as rising trade and increased human interaction with animals leads to the emergence of new diseases. The Covid-19...