# Data and Codes ["Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend"](/publications/emerging-market-business-cycles-cycle-trend) (with Mark Aguiar) 2007\. Journal of Political Economy 115, no. 1: 69-102. [DOI:10.1086/511283](http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/511283) Data used in the paper to compute business cycle statistics\_1 [\[data\_cycle\_is\_trend.xls\]](/file_url/115) Data used in the paper to compute business cycle statistics\_2 [\[solow\_mexico.xls\]](/file_url/114) A guide to the programs [\[PDF\]](/file_url/113) The main programs [\[Zipped Folder\]](/file_url/122) *Notes:* See the paper for details of the data and their sources ["Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account"](/publications/defaultable-debt-interest-rates-and-current-account) (with Mark Aguiar) 2006\. Journal of International Economics 69, no. 1: 64-83. [DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.05.005](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.05.005) Matlab code for programs [\[Zipped Folder\]](/file_url/121) *Notes:* See the paper for details of the data and their sources ## Recent Publications Download 6 citations download- [BibTeX](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=6&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters=&&&format=bibtex) - [EndNote X3 XML](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=6&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters=&&&format=endnote8) - [EndNote 7 XML](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=6&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters=&&&format=endnote7) - [Endnote tagged](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=6&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters=&&&format=tagged) - [Marc](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=6&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters=&&&format=marc) - [PubMedId](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=6&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters=&&&format=pubmed_id) - [RIS](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=6&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters=&&&format=ris) ### Working Paper Basu, Suman, Emine Boz, Gita Gopinath, Francisco Roch, and Filiz Unsal. 2020. “[A Conceptual Model for the Integrated Policy Framework](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/07/07/A-Conceptual-Model-for-the-Integrated-Policy-Framework-49558).” Basu, Suman, Emine Boz, Gita Gopinath, Francisco Roch, and Filiz Unsal. 2020. “[A Conceptual Model for the Integrated Policy Framework](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/07/07/A-Conceptual-Model-for-the-Integrated-Policy-Framework-49558).” - add\_circle do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ picture\_as\_pdfA Conceptual Model for th...](/sites/g/files/omnuum5916/files/2025-08/wpiea2020121-print-pdf.pdf) In the Mundell-Fleming framework, standard monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility fully insulate economies from shocks. However, that framework abstracts from many real world imperfections, and countries often resort to unconventional policies to... - [ picture\_as\_pdfA Conceptual Model for th...](/sites/g/files/omnuum5916/files/2025-08/wpiea2020121-print-pdf.pdf) Das, Mitali, Gita Gopinath, and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan. 2022. “[Preemptive Policies and Risk-Off Shocks in Emerging Markets](https://sebnemkalemliozcan.com/assets/workingpapers/UIPpaper_sep7_GG.pdf).” Das, Mitali, Gita Gopinath, and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan. 2022. “[Preemptive Policies and Risk-Off Shocks in Emerging Markets](https://sebnemkalemliozcan.com/assets/workingpapers/UIPpaper_sep7_GG.pdf).” - add\_circle do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during... Agarwal, Ruchir, Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands. 2022. “[A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-Term Risks of COVID-19](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/04/04/A-Global-Strategy-to-Manage-the-Long-Term-Risks-of-COVID-19-516079)”. *IMF*, no. 068: 26. Agarwal, Ruchir, Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands. 2022. “[A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-Term Risks of COVID-19](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/04/04/A-Global-Strategy-to-Manage-the-Long-Term-Risks-of-COVID-19-516079)”. *IMF*, no. 068: 26. - add\_circle do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ picture\_as\_pdfA Global Strategy to Mana...](/sites/g/files/omnuum5916/files/2025-08/A%20Global%20Strategy%20to%20Manage%20the%20Long-Term%20Risks%20of%20COVID-19.pdf) The pandemic is not over, and the health and economic losses continue to grow. It is now evident that COVID-19 will be with us for the long term, and there are very different scenarios for how it could evolve, from a mild endemic scenario to a dangerous... - [ picture\_as\_pdfA Global Strategy to Mana...](/sites/g/files/omnuum5916/files/2025-08/A%20Global%20Strategy%20to%20Manage%20the%20Long-Term%20Risks%20of%20COVID-19.pdf) Basu, Susan S, and Gita Gopinath. 2024. “[An Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) Diagram for International Economics](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/02/23/An-Integrated-Policy-Framework-IPF-Diagram-for-International-Economics-545125)”. *IMF*, no. 038. Basu, Susan S, and Gita Gopinath. 2024. “[An Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) Diagram for International Economics](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/02/23/An-Integrated-Policy-Framework-IPF-Diagram-for-International-Economics-545125)”. *IMF*, no. 038. - add\_circle do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract The Mundell-Fleming IS-LM approach has guided generations of economists over the past 60 years. But countries have experienced new problems, the international finance literature has advanced, and the composition of the global economy has changed, so the... De Leo, Pierre, Gita Gopinath, and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan. 2024. “[Monetary Policy and the Short-Rate Disconnect in Emerging Economies](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pL2ju8yYC6X8gfRqZJhC0Ng6ATNpwoWY/view?usp=sharing).” De Leo, Pierre, Gita Gopinath, and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan. 2024. “[Monetary Policy and the Short-Rate Disconnect in Emerging Economies](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pL2ju8yYC6X8gfRqZJhC0Ng6ATNpwoWY/view?usp=sharing).” - add\_circle do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract We find that central banks in emerging economies with floating exchange rates follow the Taylor-rule and lower policy rates during economic slowdowns, indicating a counter-cyclical monetary policy stance. However, unlike in advanced economies, short-term... Gopinath, Gita, and Brent Neiman. 2025. “[The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality](/publication/incidence-tariffs-rates-and-reality-0).” Gopinath, Gita, and Brent Neiman. 2025. “[The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality](/publication/incidence-tariffs-rates-and-reality-0).” - add\_circle do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ picture\_as\_pdfGN\_JEP (4).pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum5916/files/2026-01/GN_JEP%20%284%29.pdf) In 2025, statutory tariff rates on U.S. imports rose to levels not seen in over one hundred years. What are the implications for prices? On the one hand, shipping lags, exemptions, and enforcement gaps have kept the actual implemented rates at only half of... - [ picture\_as\_pdfGN\_JEP (4).pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum5916/files/2026-01/GN_JEP%20%284%29.pdf) [ More arrow\_circle\_right ](/publications)